Three Strikes: Why Buchholz Will Regress
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- Batting Average of Balls In Play (BABIP for short) is a good indicator of luck for both pitchers and batters. On average for a season the BABIP is going to be about .300. So anything below that for a player means that more balls that are made contact with are being turned into outs by the defense. For batters this shows how unlucky they are while for pitchers it shows the opposite. Clay Buchholz's BABIP for 2010 was .261 which means he was getting more lucky than some other pitchers. Part of the reason was the defense behind him making some beautiful plays, but the team can't do that day in and day out. If the BABIP creeps closer to .300 Buchholz could be in for a big hit to his numbers mainly because of his:
- Strand Rate or Left On Base Percentage (LOB%). The major league average is usually around 72%. Buchholz had an astounding (and unsustainable) 79%! If this rate comes down to a more normal range, his ERA will surely climb, especially if his BABIP returns to a more normal number. The reason his strand rate will probably fall to a more normal 72% thus making his ERA rise is because of his:
- Command numbers. You just can't be third in the league in ERA without good peripheral numbers like a higher strikeouts per nine ratio (K/9), a lower walks per nine ratio (BB/9), and strong strikeout to walk ratio (K:BB). Buchholz's numbers? a 6.22 K/9 (good for 64th in the MLB and 29th in the American League), a 3.47 BB/9 (71st and 36th) and a 1.79 K:BB (79th and 40th). Not real good from a guy many think was one of the best pitchers in the MLB last year.
So to say there's no hope for Buchholz to be a great pitcher is just an inaccurate statement. He still has time to mature and build off a great 2010. That confidence will surely help him. To all the Red Sox fans out there, just temper your expectations and prepare to be pleasantly surprised.
Photo taken from: http://static.baseballrumormill.com/images/gallery/clay-buchholz-fires.jpg
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